Lebanon's next war may also be Syria's

Here's my piece in NOW today on the scenarios of the future conflict between Israel and Hezbollah -- and, likely, Syria.

US Diffidence in the Gulf is Not an Option

Here's my piece today on what the Yemen conflict says about US policy and security architecture in the Gulf.

Strong Horse Politics

Lee Smith has a new book out, The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations, which was just published by Doubleday. I interviewed him for NOW Lebanon today, and talked about the book's thesis. Check it out.

Narrowing Options on Iran

Here's my piece in NOW this morning on US policy toward, and the debate on, Iran:

Three years ago former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger posed a key question: “[P]ressure – the attempt to induce a decision the other party had not chosen initially – is a necessary component of almost any negotiation… If sanctions cannot move […] Iran, then what can? How else can the permanent members of the Security Council […] prevail, except by making clear the consequences of intransigence?”

Kissinger’s question remains unanswered today. The situation inside Iran has offered the Obama administration a number of possible cards, which it has yet to play in an effort to expand policy options beyond a military strike. The current path of watered-down, or even “targeted”, sanctions is unlikely to succeed. So the question remains: What now? When will one be able to say that engagement has failed?